December 3, 2016

The Value of Beltran

The Houston Astros will pay Carlos Beltran $16 million for the 2017 season, putting his value at about two WAR. Given that Beltran produced 2.0 and 2.3 WAR in the last two seasons, that seems like a reasonable valuation. Both the prediction systems at FanGraphs, and Musings Marcels predict reduced performance and a much lower WAR. Beltran will play 2017 as a 39-year-old. Whenever a player gets up in years like that, a career can go south very quickly. It’s obviously a risk the Astros are willing to face as the team tries to win the first World Championship in franchise history.

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