November 13, 2016

Fitting in Reddick

Josh Reddick appears to mark all the boxes for matching well with the Orioles. He’s a left-handed corner outfield who hits well at Camden Yards.

But what might make Reddick even more attractive to the Orioles than ever is the fact that he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being dealt from the Oakland Athletics to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. That means signing Reddick wouldn’t cost the Orioles their first-round draft pick in next year’s draft.

That’s a bonus. Of course, when one examines a Dan Duquette move, the best question to ask is, “What can the player do, and does it fit on the team?” That is a difficult answer where Reddick is concerned.

Does he hit for average? Over his career, he hit .255, not bad, not great. Over the last two seasons, however, he hit .276. That’s much better.

Does he get on base? Like his batting average, his career OBP of .316 improved to .338 over the last two seasons. Note that the last two seasons were also the last two seasons of his prime, so these numbers may represent a peak in his performance.

Does he hit for power? Reddick hit 32 home runs in 2012 at seasonal age 25, and has not come close to that number since. He averaged about 14 home runs a year since. The improvement in his other averages is not reflected in his slugging percentage. He slugged .430 for his career, and .430 the last two seasons. He traded extra base hits for more singles and fewer outs.

Can he play defense? Reddick was once a strong defender, but FanGraphs shows him in decline. He won’t hurt a team, but he won’t save many runs.

Does he run well? Reddick does not steal often, but he does steal well, 41 for 52 career, 79%. He is also 9 for 9 stealing third. FanGraphs gives him positive base running values in all his seasons.

The Orioles offense was very one dimensional in 2016. They did a poor job of getting on base due to a low batting average. They were a bit slow. If one believes Reddick’s increased ability to get on base via hits is real, he would bring a dimension to the Orioles their offense lacked in 2016. Musings Marcels project him to hit .270/.331/.427 in 2017, and that would work well for the Orioles.

He will be expensive. I would go approximately three years, $50 million, but I can see where Reddick might hold out for a five year deal.

1 thought on “Fitting in Reddick

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *