November 7, 2016

Thoughts on Bud Black

The Rockies hired Bud Black as their new manager, announcing the move today, Monday.

Asked how he wants to build his pitching staff for Coors Field, Black said, “The depth of the pitching staff has to be solid. You can’t have that weak link. The starting staff is very critical, if they’re able to throw more pitches, it has less of an impact (on the bullpen). To me it’s a depth of talent issue, every guy is important.”

Black faces a very different situation than when he managed in San Diego. PETCO Park favored pitchers, but generating enough runs to support the staff was difficult. Coors Field favors batters, but limiting opponent runs is difficult. One would think that developing a better pitching staff under difficult conditions might be more up Black’s alley. On the other hand, he faces the home field bias again, when an extreme park makes one side look better than it actually performs. The Rockies offense wasn’t that good, but Coors made them look great. That might cause a front office or a manager not to look for improvements on that side of the ball.

Black brings a long track record from San Diego. Over his eight full seasons there, the team’s Pythagorean luck, the amount they were above or below their Pythagorean projection pretty much evened out. Black’s worst year was in 2011 at -8 wins, his best year was 2009 at +8 wins. If you total the eight years together, the Padres come out at +1. That tells me there is no particular skill or lack of skill that Black brings to managing close games. He wins what you would expect. Give him a good team, and they will play well, give him a poor team, and they won’t. It will be up to Black and GM Jeff Bridich to get a good team on the field.

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