As an addendum to the previous post, here are the probabilities of each type of series outcome, based on the Cubs having a .614 probability of winning any individual game.
| Outcome of Series | Probability of Outcome |
|---|---|
| Cubs Sweep | 0.142 |
| Cubs in Five | 0.219 |
| Cubs in Six | 0.212 |
| Cubs in Seven | 0.163 |
| Indians in Seven | 0.103 |
| Indians in Six | 0.084 |
| Indians in Five | 0.055 |
| Indians Sweep | 0.022 |
The highest probability of a Cubs win in five games. For the Indians, their best chance comes in seven games.
Update: I should have answered the question in the title more completely.
The probability of a:
- Four-game series is 0.164
- Five-game series is 0.274
- Six-game series is 0.296
- Seven-game series is .266
So a six game series is the most likely outcome, but it’s very close.
That makes it very tempting to think the Cubs win this in 4 or 5, but I think the Indians do their scouting well enough to push this to a 6 game series, maybe even a 7 gamer. I’m not sure if I think the Cubs will win because they’ve been better all year, or if I think they’ll win because I really want to see them break their drought a little more than the Indians breaking theirs. Whatever happens, it’s going to be fun watching these two battle for a championship and I’ll be happy whoever wins it.
Too bad one of these teams has to lose!