October 23, 2016

Big Favorites

The Cubs are the big betting favorite in the World Series:

A bettor would have to wager $175 on the Cubs to win $100. A $100 bet on the Indians would pay $155 if they win.

Odds are set so there is an even amount of better on both teams. So for every $275 bet, the bookies pay out $255. That’s a vig of $20, 7.2% of the action. So it looks like the Cubs have a probability of 65% to win the World Series, according to the betting action.

Of course, we can use math to get an handle on the number. The Log5 method indicates the Indians should score 3.64 runs per game against the Cubs. The Cubs should score 4.59 runs per game against the Indians. Given those numbers, the Pythagorean winning percentage for the Cubs should be .614. That the probability of winning any one game. The probability of winning at least four of seven, then, is .74. Looks like you should bet on the Cubs.

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