October 7, 2016

Playoffs Today

Take a late lunch if you live on the east coast as the Blue Jays and Rangers kick off the Friday quadruple header at 1 PM EDT in Texas. J.A. Happ faces Yu Darvish. At age 33, Happ won 20 games for the first time. His previous career high was 12 in 2009. Happ does not have a particular strength nor weakness, his 2.8 walks per nine representing his strongest three-true outcome. The Rangers are more a hacking team, so being in the strike zone against them doesn’t help. Darvish blows away batters with strikeouts, 132 K in 100 1/3 innings. He will give up the long ball, however, and that plays into the strength of the Blue Jays.

The park factor neural network picks Devon Travis as most likely to get a hit for the Blue Jays, Adrian Beltre most likely to get a hit for the Rangers.

Game two features veteran aces as David Price and the Red Sox try to even their series with the Indians against Corey Kluber. Price performs poorly in the post-season, owning a 2-7 record and a 5.12 ERA in 14 appearances and eight starts. Both his wins came in relief. Kluber makes his post-season debut, having gone 18-9 for the second time in his career. He is a high strikeout, low walk pitcher, but the Red Sox still did a very good job collecting hits against him.

The NN shows the offensive players most likely to get a hit are Francisco Lindor for the Blue Jays, and Mookie Betts for the Red Sox. Betts is #2 among all players today.

The big guns take the mound in Washington in the early evening game, as Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers visits Max Scherzer. Both pitchers blow away batters, but Kershaw adds incredible walk and home run rates to the mix. Scherzer did get his home run problem under control in the second half. I suspect the over/under on hits allowed by starters in this game may be around 5. 🙂

Daniel Murphy is the most likely Washington batter to get a hit, and despite facing Kershaw, is the top rated batter playing today. Corey Seager is #1 for the Dodgers.

Finally, the Giants take on the Cubs as Johnny Cueto faces Jon Lester. Since 2008, when the two have been pitching full time, they are very close in ERA and three true outcomes. Cueto beats Lester in three-true outcomes this season, but Lester uses his great defense to post the lower ERA.

Eduardo Nunez is the most likely Giants batter to get a hit today, while Kris Bryant and Javier Baez tie for mostly likely Cubs hitter.

Enjoy!

2 thoughts on “Playoffs Today

  1. Steve T.

    Umm, I know the Blue Jays are clobbering Texas (again), but they’re doing it without the assistance of Francisco Lindor. We’re really counting on him to go deep against the Red Sox again this afternoon…
    😉

    ReplyReply

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