Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.362 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner
0.323 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner
0.309 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey
0.309 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson
0.303 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis
0.303 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler Duffey
0.300 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey
0.297 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Wright
0.296 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Daniel Wright
0.295 — Alex Bregman batting against Daniel Wright

Houston is no longer playing for a post-season slot, but they do get a chance to hit against the Angels pitching staff.

The NN produces this list:

0.362, 0.779 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.326, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.323, 0.748 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.290, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brent Suter.
0.306, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.309, 0.720 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.309, 0.718 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.274, 0.716 — Devon Travis batting against Rick Porcello.
0.303, 0.716 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.284, 0.716 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.300, 0.714 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.277, 0.714 — Paulo Orlando batting against Ryan Merritt.

I’m surprised Travis makes the list against Porcello. Porcello does walk very few batters, so if someone does reach against the Red Sox ace, it’s likely to be via the hit. Travis is a big banged up, so check that he is playing Friday night.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.362, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.326, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.323, 0.752 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.290, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brent Suter.
0.306, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.303, 0.728 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.309, 0.726 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.309, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.274, 0.722 — Devon Travis batting against Rick Porcello.
0.276, 0.720 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brent Suter.
0.284, 0.720 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.300, 0.720 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey.

It looks like Altuve and Turner are the consensus picks. Good luck! Your top pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.