September 26, 2016

NL Massive Tie Scenario

The Mets took the lead in the NL Wild Card race on Sunday as they won, while the Giants and Cardinals lost. The three teams can tie at 88 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Mets 5-1
Giants 6-0
Cardinals 7-0

 

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .528 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie dropped to 0.0401. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 4-3, with the Giants 3-3, and Mets going 2-4. That has a probability of 0.0184.

I discussed the AL here Sunday night.

For today, the best outcomes are:

  • The Blue Jays lose to the Yankees.
  • The Tigers defeat the Indians.
  • The Mets lose to the Marlins.
  • The outcomes of the Astros and Mariners doesn’t matter. Which ever teams wins this game needs to sweep the series to get a good chance at an AL massive tie.
  • The Cardinals defeat the Reds

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *