September 25, 2016

Massive Tie Scenarios

It was a perfect night the NL Wild Card massive tie. The Giants won, although they needed extra innings, the Cardinals won, and the Mets lost. That means the teams are tied in the AFILC. They can tie at 89 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Mets 7-0
Giants 7-0
Cardinals 8-0

 

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .528 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0464. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 5-3, with the Giants and Mets going 4-3. That has a probability of 0.0198. Basically, a tie from this point on would happen one time every 22 chances.

The Massive Tie in the AL suffered greatly as the top team, the Blue Jays, won, but the bottom two teams, the Mariners and the Astros lost.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 2-6
Orioles 3-4
Tigers 4-4
Mariners 6-2
Astros 6-1

 

Even the four-way tie for the second wild card slot looks iffy. A three-way tie for the second slot between the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners could happen, but a three-way for the top two slots, like in the NL, may be the best bet.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 5-2
Orioles 6-1
Tigers 7-1

 

Since the Orioles and Blue Jays play three games head-to-head, Baltimore would need to take two of three from Toronto to make this happen at 90 wins.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

  • The Tigers beat the Royals
  • The Blue Jays lose to the Yankees.
  • The Orioles defeat the Diamondbacks.
  • The Mariners defeat the Twins
  • The Astros win against the Angels.
  • The Cardinals, Giants, and Mets all have the same result.

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