The Mets won Friday night, while the Cardinals and Giants lost. That reduces the maximum number of wins for a three-way tie for the two NL Wild Card slots to 89.

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .528 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie dropped to 0.0331. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 5-4, with the Giants going 4-4, and the Mets going 3-5. That has a probability of 0.0134.

With the Yankees losing to the Blue Jays Friday night, it looks like the six way tie is dead. Houston was the only other wild card contender to lose, which didn’t help the five way tie that much. It still works, however, at 89 wins.

This can work with the Astros taking two of three from Seattle, and the Orioles sweeping the Blue Jays. The other nice thing about this scenario is that none of these teams play head-to-head the final weekend, so once the two head-to-head series are done in the middle of next week, we will have a very good idea of what ties are possible. There could be a three or four-way tie for the second slot, a three or four-way tie for two slots.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Tigers lose to the Royals
• The Cardinals defeat the Cubs
• The Blue Jays lose to the Yankees.
• The Orioles defeat the Diamondbacks.
• The Mariners defeat the Twins
• The Astros win against the Angels.
• The Mets lose to the Phillies
• The Giants beat the Padres.