The Cardinals did not play Thursday night. The Giants and Mets won close games. The Giants beat the Padres 2-1 behind a stellar performance by Jeff Samardzija. He threw seven shutout innings, with no walks and nine strikeouts. The Mets beat the Phillies 9-8 in extra innings on two dramatic home runs. Jose Reyes hit a two-run shot in the ninth to tie the game at six. After the Mets allowed two runs in the top of the 11th, Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the inning to win the game. If the three teams win all their remaining games, the tie can happen at 90 wins:

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .528 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0371. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 6-4, with the Mets and Giants going 5-4. That has a probability of 0.015.

The AL Wild Card race saw the Tigers sweep a double header from the Twins, while the Orioles, Astros, and Yankees all lost. The Tigers pass the Orioles and Detroit now holds the second wild card slot. A six-way tie can happen with at most 87 wins:

The six way tie is on life support. A better scenario is a five-way tie that eliminates the Yankees, happening at 88 wins:

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Orioles defeat the Diamondbacks.
• The Yankees beat the Blue Jays. This is the most important result for the six-way tie.
• The Tigers play the Royals, and the result can go either way.
• The Mariners defeat the Twins
• The Astros win against the Angels.
• The Cardinals, Giants and Mets have the same result.