All three NL Wild Card contenders lost Wednesday night, preserving the three-way tie for the two NL Wild Card slots. If the three teams win all their remaining games, the tie can happen at 90 wins:
| Team | Record |
| Mets | 10-0 |
| Giants | 10-0 |
| Cardinals | 10-0 |
Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .526 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0356. The most likely outcome for a tie has all three teams going 5-5 with a probability of .014. The odds remain long but not impossible as we probably see things with a 1 in 28 chance of happening once a month.
A massive tie for the AL East championship is pretty much over, as the Red Sox took control of that race. However, the wild card is more interesting than ever with six teams vying for two spots. With the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles all with head-to-head series, and the Astros playing three more games against the Mariners, a six-way tie is possible but unlikely. It can happen with at most 88 wins:
| Team | Record |
| Blue Jays | 5-5 |
| Orioles | 6-4 |
| Tigers | 8-4 |
| Astros | 7-3 |
| Mariners | 8-2 |
| Yankees | 9-2 |
A better scenario is a five-way tie that eliminates the Yankees:
| Team | Record |
| Blue Jays | 6-4 |
| Orioles | 7-3 |
| Tigers | 9-3 |
| Astros | 8-2 |
| Mariners | 9-1 |
The above leads to 89 wins, and everyone finishes the stretch run over .500. Of course, there are a number of four-way and three-way tied embedded in this, which may work out as the games progress. Detroit is in a very good position, as they can let the other teams knock each other off. They have four games left against Cleveland, and the Indians magic number is five. Detroit is probably still alive for the division when the two meet, so Cleveland will be playing for the division, and for home field throughout the playoffs.
For today, the best outcomes would be:
- The Tigers sweep two games from the Twins.
- The Orioles defeat the Red Sox.
- The Yankees beat the Rays.
- The Astros win against the Angels.
- The Giants and Mets have the same result.
At one time I was thinking about expanding to 32 teams, with 4 four team divisions in each league. But that would throw away the wild cards (or else there’d be a complicated playoff with some teams sitting for days) and I think the WC chases are good for baseball as more teams are still in it, with less incentive to sell off.
rbj » You could still have a wild card, with a game between the wild card team and the worst division winner. In a four division league, I suspect the fourth worst division winner will often have a worse record than the best second place team.