September 22, 2016

Early Inning, Late Game

The Red Sox beat the Orioles 5-1 Wednesday night to extend their lead in the AL East to five games and reduce their magic number to clinch the division to six. On Sept 9, the Red Sox started a 14-game stretch against the three opponents vying for the AL East title. That stretch finishes on Thursday. So far, Boston went 10-3, winning the last seven in a row, and for all intents and purposes have sown up the AL East title.

Boston dominated their opponents, the Red Sox hitters posting a .287/.350/.490 slash line, while Red Sox pitchers held opponents to a .220/.280/.367 slash line. What I found interesting was two particular splits which showed when those differences arose.

The first happens early in innings. With none out and none on, Red Sox hitters generated a .403 OBP and hit five home runs. So 40% of the time, the Red Sox are putting pressure on the pitcher from the start of the inning forward. Boston pitchers allowed a .237 OBP in that situation with two home runs, so by getting the first out often, they are facing a much lower run potential in a given inning.

Late in the game, the Red Sox dominate again. In Late and Close situations, Boston hit .328/.355/.500. With the game on the line, Boston hitters delivered. Meanwhile, the Red Sox pitcher held opponents to a .157/.204/.157 line. No extra base hits. If you’ve been watching Boston in this time period and perceive them to be a clutch team, that is why.

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