Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Anderson
0.332 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson
0.330 — J.D. Martinez batting against Pat Dean
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.325 — David Dahl batting against Brett Anderson
0.324 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Pat Dean
0.320 — Cameron Maybin batting against Pat Dean
0.315 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson
0.312 — T.J. Rivera batting against Adam Morgan
0.310 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Anderson

T.J. Rivera looks like the ultimate hit average player. He is a rookie late-season call up well in his prime. He’s batting .347 with a .342 OBP, drawing just one walk. His hit average is going to be very close to his batting average. Even regressing his numbers a great deal for the small sample size, Log5 likes him against a high hit pitcher like Adam Morgan.

The NN produces this list:

0.328, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.345, 0.762 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Anderson.
0.332, 0.744 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.330, 0.739 — J.D. Martinez batting against Pat Dean.
0.324, 0.736 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Pat Dean.
0.292, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.304, 0.727 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.325, 0.724 — David Dahl batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296, 0.722 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.315, 0.719 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.

The usual suspects are at the top of the list, and it also is in line with Log5 today.

Adding parks to the calculation modifies the list like this:

0.345, 0.767 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Anderson.
0.328, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.332, 0.750 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.330, 0.745 — J.D. Martinez batting against Pat Dean.
0.324, 0.742 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Pat Dean.
0.292, 0.735 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.325, 0.733 — David M Dahl batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304, 0.732 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.315, 0.727 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.320, 0.727 — Cameron Maybin batting against Pat Dean.

Note that the Tigers and Twins are playing a double header today, and the high ranking game is game one. It looks like LeMahieu, Blackmon, and Altuve are the consensus picks today. Of course, 25% of the time your best pick won’t get a hit. Good luck!