Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.346 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo
0.319 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Phil Gosselin batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios
0.312 — Christopher Owings batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jered Weaver
0.308 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios

I could see Perdomo telling Log5, #DONTLOOKATME.

The NN produces this list:

0.304, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.305, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.346, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.306, 0.740 — Trea Turner batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.306, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luke A Weaver.
0.317, 0.730 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.313, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.296, 0.729 — Mookie Betts batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.282, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.307, 0.727 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios.

Segura is stil a good pick, but the league’s best hitters rise to the top.

Factoring in the park modifies the list like this:

0.346, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.304, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.305, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.306, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luke A Weaver.
0.306, 0.743 — Trea Turner batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.317, 0.736 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.313, 0.735 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.307, 0.732 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios.
0.296, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.308, 0.730 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jered Weaver.
0.295, 0.729 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.282, 0.729 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.

So Segura is the consensus top pick. As always, the top pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!