August 29, 2016

Do Run Run Run

FanGraphs looks at the Padres excellent base running in 2016. They do especially taking extra bases after contact:

The Padres are #1, at almost +16 runs; the Indians are second, at +10 runs. The Padres are six runs better than the next best team at this on the year; only four other teams are even six runs better than average by UBR this year. This is an area where the Padres are an island to themselves; no one is even close to being as good as they are this.

And the conclusion:

Advancing on contact isn’t a big enough deal to save the Padres lousy season, but it says something about the team that they’re this good at something so small in a throwaway season. I don’t know who is responsible for their success, but the Padres should probably find out and then figure out how to keep him in San Diego, because this is the organization’s one bright spot this year.

I will respectively disagree. The Padres rank 10th in the NL in runs scored. If you take away the 16 runs from their taking extra bases, they would still be tenth in runs scored. They rank 14th in OBP. Take the money spent on the running coach and find someone who can teach the hitters to get on base more.

Many years ago in a baseball abstract, Bill James looked at the average divisional finish for teams that led the league in a number of offensive categories. He then used those averages to rank stats by their importance in contributing to winning. Stolen bases were at the bottom, right behind triples. Hits and walks ranked high. In other words, getting on base is much more important than how you get around the bases. That’s why batters should learn to hit against the shift, and take ball four with a man on third and less than two out. Maybe if a team is a fringe playoff contender, the extra two wins from running will make a difference. For the Padres, it’s a waste of instruction time. Get them on base, then worry about running.

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