August 28, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis
0.343 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.343 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo
0.338 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo
0.336 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis
0.317 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis
0.315 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Perdomo
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Homer Bailey

It’s a good day to pick a Marlins batter. Nice to see Trea Turner working his way into the top ten. Turner posts a high BA without walking much, making him a good candidate for a hit in any game.

The NN produces a similar list:

0.351, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.357, 0.760 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.343, 0.757 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.286, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.343, 0.741 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.336, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis.
0.338, 0.739 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.270, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Jon Lester.

Murphy and Pardo trade one and two, but both show very high probabilities of hits, as does Dee Gordon. I will note that Bettis allows fewer hits on the road than at home, so even with the park factored in the methods might be over-stating the Murphy probabilities.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.351, 0.772 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.357, 0.765 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.343, 0.761 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.286, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.343, 0.748 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.336, 0.746 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis.
0.338, 0.745 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.301, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.309, 0.732 — Jean Segura batting against Homer Bailey.

There is a agreement at the top, some small changes at the bottom. As always, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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