Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.326 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer
0.323 — Cameron Maybin batting against Brett Oberholtzer
0.321 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Brett Oberholtzer
0.316 — Victor Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer
0.310 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.307 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Leake
0.305 — Jean Segura batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.301 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.299 — Martin Prado batting against Clayton Richard
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell
0.298 — Ian Kinsler batting against Brett Oberholtzer
It looks like a good day to be hitting for the Tigers. Right-handed batters hit over .300 against Oberholtzer this season.
The NN produces this list:
0.298, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.310, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.326, 0.738 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.321, 0.737 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.270, 0.729 — Corey Seager batting against Jason Hammel.
0.290, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.294, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against David Price.
0.299, 0.726 — Martin Prado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.323, 0.726 — Cameron Maybin batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.286, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against A.J. Cole.
0.316, 0.724 — Victor Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
The NN puts more weight on the hitter, so Altuve and Murphy bubble to the top, but Tigers against Oberholtzer certainly are well represented.
The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:
0.298, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Blake Snell.
0.310, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.326, 0.745 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.321, 0.743 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.323, 0.735 — Cameron Maybin batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.286, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against A.J. Cole.
0.316, 0.732 — Victor Martinez batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.294, 0.731 — Paulo Orlando batting against David Price.
0.299, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.290, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against Clayton Richard.
The Tigers look better on this list. For the second day in a row, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera appear to be the consensus choices, although it seems you can’t go wrong too often with Jose Altuve. Just remember that 25% of the time, you best picks will fail to get a hit.