August 26, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Adam Morgan
0.325 — James Loney batting against Adam Morgan
0.318 — Jose Reyes batting against Adam Morgan
0.316 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.316 — Neil Walker batting against Adam Morgan
0.315 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.313 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Hoffman
0.311 — Devon Travis batting against Pat Dean
0.311 — Cameron Maybin batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.311 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Smyly

Log5 indicates the Mets should do very well against Adam Morgan on Friday. Morgan allows a .306 hit average this season. The Tigers should do well against Ricky Nolasco as well.

The NN produces a much different list:

0.311, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Smyly.
0.313, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.315, 0.735 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.316, 0.732 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.311, 0.732 — Devon Travis batting against Pat Dean.
0.297, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.313, 0.727 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.264, 0.725 — Corey Seager batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.328, 0.724 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Adam Morgan.
0.325, 0.721 — James Loney batting against Adam Morgan.

The NN puts more weight on the batter, it seems as the top Mets, Cespedes and Loney drop to the bottom of the list and Jose Altuve rise to the top.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.311, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Smyly.
0.313, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.315, 0.742 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.316, 0.740 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.297, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.311, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Pat Dean.
0.313, 0.734 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.328, 0.731 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Adam Morgan.
0.309, 0.729 — Victor Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.325, 0.728 — James Loney batting against Adam Morgan.

I will not that Daniel Murphy against Jeff Hoffman should be taken with a grain of salt, as the system sees Hoffman as close to league average after just one game in the majors. The consensus picks seem to be Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez, both of whom finish high on all three list. Even you best picks will fail about 25% of the time, however. Good luck!

2 thoughts on “Beat the Streak Picks

  1. Ryan

    There’s a player on a 48 game streak now and going for the all-time high of 49 tonight (which has been done by two others). No one has made it to 50.

    My best is 8, and thanks for this resource.

    ReplyReply

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