Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.352 — Jose Altuve batting against Ivan Nova
0.315 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chase Anderson
0.315 — Paulo Orlando batting against Andrew Cashner
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman
0.306 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Chase Anderson
0.305 — Charles Blackmon batting against Chase Anderson
0.303 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.301 — Devon Travis batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.297 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sean Manaea
0.297 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson
You might want to be careful choosing batters against Chase Anderson. A right-handed pitcher, he has a huge reverse platoon split this season.
The NN produces this list:
0.352, 0.786 — Jose Altuve batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.315, 0.742 — Paulo Orlando batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.315, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.297, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sean Manaea.
0.301, 0.727 — Devon Travis batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.305, 0.725 — Charles Blackmon batting against Chase Anderson.
0.263, 0.723 — Corey Seager batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.306, 0.723 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Chase Anderson.
0.303, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
The NN confirms that Altuve should have a huge probability of a hit against Nova. Both methods agree on the top four hitters, but in a slightly different order.
The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:
0.352, 0.785 — Jose Altuve batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.315, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.315, 0.747 — Paulo Orlando batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.305, 0.736 — Charles Blackmon batting against Chase Anderson.
0.306, 0.735 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Chase Anderson.
0.297, 0.732 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sean Manaea.
0.301, 0.730 — Devon Travis batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.303, 0.728 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.296, 0.727 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Cashner.
It’s a good day to pick Altuve. Even at that level, there’s a better than 20% chance he doesn’t get a hit. Good luck!