Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.338 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley
0.331 — Yadier Molina batting against Adam Morgan
0.324 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Adam Morgan
0.322 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios
0.307 — Martin Prado batting against Gerrit Cole
0.305 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against Collin McHugh
0.305 — Matt Carpenter batting against Adam Morgan
0.302 — Manny Machado batting against Collin McHugh
0.298 — Jhonny Peralta batting against Adam Morgan
0.297 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole
0.297 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jered Weaver
It’s a good day to play for the Cardinals. Even the Cardinals pitching staff was showing high probabilities of a hit against Adam Morgan. Opponents are batting .323 against Morgan, and he doesn’t issue many walks.
The NN produces this list:
0.338, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley.
0.322, 0.745 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.297, 0.735 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.307, 0.735 — Martin Prado batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.296, 0.727 — Justin Morneau batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.269, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.283, 0.725 — Corey Seager batting against Timothy Max Adleman.
0.331, 0.722 — Yadier Molina batting against Adam Morgan.
0.324, 0.716 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Adam Morgan.
0.295, 0.715 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Berrios.
The NN is less anti-Morgan. The usual cast of characters filter to the top.
The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:
0.338, 0.779 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley.
0.322, 0.749 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.307, 0.739 — Martin Prado batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.297, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.331, 0.732 — Yadier Molina batting against Adam Morgan.
0.296, 0.730 — Justin Morneau batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.269, 0.728 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.283, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Timothy Max Adleman.
0.324, 0.725 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Adam Morgan.
0.302, 0.720 — Manny Machado batting against Collin McHugh.
0.295, 0.720 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Berrios.
Altuve and Yadier Molina appear to be the consensus best picks. Please remember that about 25% of the time, your top picks will fail to get a hit.