Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.360 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.343 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.333 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.331 — Sandy Leon batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.329 — David Ortiz batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.328 — Manny Machado batting against Chad Bettis
0.324 — Yunel Escobar batting against Dillon Gee
0.323 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Chad Bettis
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Garza
0.318 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against Chad Bettis
If you can’t get a batter against Mike Pelfrey, get one against Chad Bettis.
The NN disagrees a bit, but not too much:
0.360, 0.769 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.312, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.343, 0.748 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.324, 0.741 — Yunel Escobar batting against Dillon Gee.
0.333, 0.733 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.328, 0.732 — Manny Machado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.262, 0.727 — Daniel Murphy batting against Danny Salazar.
0.312, 0.726 — Ryan Braun batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.323, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Garza.
0.299, 0.726 — Martin Prado batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
The NN seems to put a little more weight on the ability of the hitters. Altuve was just off the Log5 list.
The NN with the ballpark factored in modifies the list like this:
0.360, 0.775 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.312, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.343, 0.756 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.324, 0.748 — Yunel Escobar batting against Dillon Gee.
0.333, 0.743 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.328, 0.740 — Manny Machado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.323, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Garza.
0.312, 0.733 — Ryan Braun batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.329, 0.732 — David Ortiz batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.323, 0.732 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Chad Bettis.
Bogaerts and Betts seem to be the best bets for today. As always, your best pick is going to go hitless about 25% of the time. Good luck!