Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Chase Anderson
0.301 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.299 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.297 — Angel Pagan batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.296 — Martin Prado batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.295 — Buster Posey batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.290 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.290 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson
The Altuve versus Pineda matchup is fascinating. Pineda, with a very high strikeout rate, should not allow many hits. Yet last year and this his BABIP is high and his home run rate is high. Add to that a low walk rate, and he works out to be quite hittable. Still, he could also easily throw a very low hit game.
The NN produces this result:
0.329, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
0.296, 0.726 — Martin Prado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.301, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.263, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Justin Verlander.
0.304, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Chase Anderson.
0.299, 0.717 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.289, 0.716 — Christian Yelich batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.297, 0.715 — Manny Machado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.290, 0.714 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.295, 0.713 — Buster Posey batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
That’s a huge probability for Altuve of getting a hit in the game. Altuve is 2 for 8 with no strike outs against Pineda during the regular season.
The NN with the park factored in looks similar:
0.329, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
0.301, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.296, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.304, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Chase Anderson.
0.299, 0.724 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.263, 0.723 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Justin Verlander.
0.289, 0.721 — Christian Yelich batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.290, 0.720 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.297, 0.720 — Manny Machado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.295, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
Altuve is by far the consensus pick, with LeMahieu or Prado as the double down choice. As always, your best pick is not going to get a high about 25% of the time. Good luck!