July 23, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.335 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver
0.328 — Mookie Betts batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.314 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.313 — Sandy Leon batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.310 — David Ortiz batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.306 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh
0.303 — Corey Seager batting against Mike Leake
0.303 — Daniel Murphy batting against Edwin Jackson
0.300 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Wisler

Betts left the game Friday night with a sore right knee and is day to day. Otherwise, a Red Sox hitter against Ricky Nolasco looks like a good pick.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.335, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.336, 0.752 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.303, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.328, 0.741 — Mookie Betts batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.306, 0.728 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh.
0.303, 0.724 — Corey Seager batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Wisler.
0.314, 0.721 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.299, 0.717 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Matt Wisler.
0.283, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against David Price.
0.290, 0.710 — Buster Posey batting against Ivan Nova.

Posey injured his foot Friday night, and with a day game after a night game might not play anyway. Ricky Nolasco doesn’t make quite as many appearances on this list.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.335, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.336, 0.760 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.328, 0.750 — Mookie Betts batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.303, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.300, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Wisler.
0.314, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.306, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh.
0.299, 0.730 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Matt Wisler.
0.303, 0.729 — Corey Seager batting against Mike Leake.
0.310, 0.720 — David Ortiz batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.289, 0.720 — Charles Blackmon batting against Matt Wisler.

Altuve and Bogaerts are the top two in all three lists. Remember, the best pick you can make fails to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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