Over the All-Star break I’d like to review the six divisions to see where teams stand and how they might be positioned for the rest of the season. The series continues with the NL East. The Nationals hold a 6 game lead over the Marlins and Mets, and 22.5 games separate the division top to bottom. That’s the largest top to bottom separation in the six divisions.
Washington Nationals 54-36, .600
Team Strengths: The pitchers and defense allows the lowest runs per game in the NL. Pitchers are tied with the Dodgers for the highest K per 9 in the league, and post excellent walk numbers as well. Batters lead the league with 124 home runs. They generate this power with the fourth lowest strikeout total in the league, and draw a high number of walks. Hitting home runs without a ton of strikeouts is unusual.
Team Weaknesses: Washington batters own a low BABIP, .282, third worst in the NL. So while they put a ton of balls in play, they are not turning into hits. That’s why sometimes there is the feeling that the teams is under performing.
The Nationals have not found a lead-off man. Ben Revere and Michael Taylor split the duties. Revere, now recovered from his early season injuries, may make a big difference in that slot in the second half. The older Nationals players stayed healthy this season, which helped the team stay on track.
Miami Marlins 47-41, .534
Team Strengths: The batters collect a ton of hits. They’ve done a good job of making up for the suspended Dee Gordon. The pitchers strike out batters at a high rate, and the bullpen leads the NL in saves with 33.
Team Weaknesses: While the Marlins own a high hit total, they don’t do much damage with their hits. Note that they score at the same rate as the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds BA is 35 points lower, but their slugging percentage is only 14 points lower. The Reds move the runners they get on base farther. The Marlins also hit into a ton of double plays. Marlins pitcher are wild, ranking high in most walks allowed and wild pitches thrown.
A big power second half by Giancarlo Stanton would certainly fix the extra-base hit problem. Also, Derek Dietrich played well as the second baseman. What does the team do when Dee Gordon returns?
New York Mets 47-41, .534
Team Strengths: Mets pitching and defense allow the second lowest runs per game in the NL. They own excellent three-true outcome rates. The Mets hitters are second in the league in home runs.
Team Weaknesses: Unlike the Nationals hitters, the Mets do strike out a lot, which means they have a low batting average. They do not collect a high number of doubles or triples, so they are very dependent on the home run.
The Mets are the Nationals light. The strengths and weakness are similar, but the Nats are just a bit better. New York lost Matt Harvey and David Wright for the rest of the season. Neither was playing well before they went down, but the Mets repeating assumed they would be good this season.
Philadelphia Phillies 42-48, .467
Team Strengths: Phillies pitchers do a good job of recording strikeouts and limiting walks. The batters are good at hitting triples.
Team Weaknesses: The offense posts both a low BA and a low OBP, putting them near the bottom of the league in runs scored. The pitchers give up the second most home runs in the league, so they need to work on that leg of the three-true outcomes stool.
The Phillies have the second lowest batting age in the NL, and the lowest pitching age. They are playing well for a very young team, which could bode well for the future.
Atlanta Braves 31-58, .348
Team Strengths: Batters hit a decent number of doubles and triples. Defense doesn’t hurt the team, as the pitchers allowed a fairly low hit total.
Team Weaknesses: The Braves own the lowest scoring offense in the NL. Their 55 home runs is lowest in the league by 20, and they hit into a ton of double plays. The pitching staff issues lots of walks and wild pitches. They are close to league average in giving up home runs, but that means they allowed 41 more than the batters hit.
The Braves stripped their team for the future, and it’s showing.
Conclusions: Last season the Nationals were in first place by two games at the break and faded. They are healthier this season, with the Mets suffering two big injuries. Bryce Harper is capable of playing better for the Natinonals, and Giancarlo Stanton is capable of the same for the Marlins. I would love to see a good race between those two teams down the stretch. We’ll see if the Nationals can avoid making a trade that screws up the bullpen this season.