Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.312 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Locke
0.309 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.306 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.303 — Wilson Ramos batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.303 — Freddie Freeman batting against Justin Nicolino
0.297 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman
0.295 — Starling Marte batting against Sonny Gray
0.295 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Matt Garza
0.295 — Jeff Francoeur batting against Justin Nicolino
0.295 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller
0.295 — Angel Pagan batting against Shelby Miller
0.295 — Ryan Braun batting against Jaime Garcia
0.295 — Chase D’Arnaud batting against Justin Nicolino
The list is a bit long, since a number of players work out to a .295 probability of a hit in a plate appearance. I’d be careful about picking a batter against Shelby Miller since he is now healthy.
The NN produces this top ten list:
0.322, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.325, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.309, 0.743 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.290, 0.735 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Martin Perez.
0.251, 0.735 — Ben Revere batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.312, 0.732 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Locke.
0.297, 0.732 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.285, 0.726 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Matt Garza.
0.295, 0.726 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.284, 0.725 — Robinson Cano batting against Kevin Gausman.
It’s the usual suspects, with the NN agreeing ton the top three, but in a different order.
The NN that considers parks changes the list like this:
0.322, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.325, 0.708 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.309, 0.707 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.290, 0.701 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Martin Perez.
0.251, 0.696 — Ben Revere batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.312, 0.693 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Locke.
0.297, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.691 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.285, 0.689 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Matt Garza.
0.290, 0.689 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ervin Santana.
Buster Posey gets a boost, and Adrian Beltre replaces Robinson Cano in the tenth slot. Altuve and Murphy are the consensus picks. As always, your pick will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!