Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Paulo Orlando batting against Adam Wainwright
0.314 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.308 — Ian Desmond batting against Ivan Nova
0.307 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh
0.306 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell
0.302 — Jurickson Profar batting against Ivan Nova
0.299 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ivan Nova
0.298 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.292 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.291 — Elvis Andrus batting against Ivan Nova

I’m surprised to see anyone versus Noah Syndergaard on the list, but Daniel Murphy is having a great year. It’s also surprising to see Adam Wainwright at the top of the list, but the league is hitting .275 against him this year.

Here is the NN top ten:

0.314, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.306, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell.
0.299, 0.731 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ivan Nova.
0.298, 0.729 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279, 0.729 — Francisco Lindor batting against John Gant.
0.287, 0.728 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.292, 0.726 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.263, 0.725 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.307, 0.725 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh.
0.289, 0.724 — Odubel Herrera batting against Robbie Ray.

Orlando drops off the list replaced by teammate Lorenzo Cain. That makes Jose Altuve the consensus choice, as he is on so many days. Murphy actually moves up a bit against Syndergaard. Xander Bogaerts and Adrian Beltre move up as well.

The NN that includes park data produces this top ten:

0.314, 0.718 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.306, 0.698 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.692 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.299, 0.691 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289, 0.690 — Odubel Herrera batting against Robbie Ray.
0.229, 0.690 — Chris Colabello batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.279, 0.690 — Francisco Lindor batting against John Gant.
0.298, 0.689 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.292, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.263, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Mengden.

Murphy falls again when you include parks. Altuve and Bogaerts are once again the top choices, with Adrian Beltre a good alternative.