Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.325 — Jean Segura batting against Chad Bettis
0.321 — Brandon Phillips batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Zack Cozart batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi
0.311 — Carlos Beltran batting against Tyler Duffey
0.309 — Jay Bruce batting against Luis Perdomo
0.308 — Didi Gregorius batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin
0.306 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Patrick Corbin
0.305 — Kyle Waldrop batting against Luis Perdomo
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.305 — Ramon Cabrera batting against Luis Perdomo
Luis Perdomo is not as prevalent on this list as he was the last time he pitched. A larger sample size helps. Batters against Duffey and Corbin make plenty of appearances.
The top then from the NN:
0.284, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.304, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.315, 0.740 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.305, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.306, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.264, 0.732 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Doug Fister.
0.271, 0.731 — Ender Inciarte batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.270, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Aaron Nola.
0.296, 0.727 — Paulo Orlando batting against Doug Fister.
0.277, 0.726 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
Eduardo Nunez seems to be the consensus pick so far.
The NN with park produces this list:
0.284, 0.718 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.304, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.306, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.315, 0.700 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.289, 0.699 — Nolan Arenado batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.305, 0.698 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.264, 0.698 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Doug Fister.
0.292, 0.696 — Charles Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.306, 0.694 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.265, 0.694 — Nick Hundley batting against Patrick Corbin.
With the stadium taken into consideration, the NN really likes the Rockies hitters against Patrick Corbin. Looking at the three list, Nunez and LeMahieu seem to be the consensus picks, with Daniel Murphy third. This comes with the usual warning that the top picks will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!