Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda
0.330 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza
0.315 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Fiers
0.312 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Garza
0.299 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller
0.299 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Shelby Miller
0.298 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Michael Pineda
0.298 — Corey Seager batting against Jeff Locke
0.296 — Danny Valencia batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.293 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Leake

Picking a hitter against Michael Pineda is very tough. Pineda strikes out so many batters that there are just not too many balls in play against him. This year, at least, the balls that are put in play tend to fall for hits. Garza hasn’t pitched much in 2016, so his 13 hits in 10 innings isn’t very representative.

The NN produces this top 10:

0.330, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.330, 0.740 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.256, 0.739 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.286, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Young.
0.274, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.284, 0.736 — Buster Posey batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.293, 0.727 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Leake.
0.296, 0.724 — Danny Valencia batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.286, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.278, 0.721 — Yunel Escobar batting against Dillon Ray Overton.

The Garza also has a high hit average over the last three seasons as well, so Nunez and Murphy look like the consensus pick so far.

NN with park puts the batters in this order:

0.330, 0.712 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.256, 0.703 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.274, 0.702 — Xander Bogaerts batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.286, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Young.
0.330, 0.700 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.284, 0.699 — Buster Posey batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.265, 0.690 — David Peralta batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.299, 0.690 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller.
0.286, 0.688 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.686 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Leake.
0.247, 0.684 — Josh Harrison batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.284, 0.684 — Nolan Arenado batting against Shelby Miller.
0.281, 0.684 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Michael Fiers.

With the park included, Murphy moves to the top of the consensus list.