Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.319 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver
0.317 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez
0.313 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp
0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Moore
0.303 — Paulo Orlando batting against Dallas Keuchel
0.297 — Starling Marte batting against Nick Tepesch
0.293 — Josh Reddick batting against Jered Weaver
0.292 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jake Peavy
0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against Edinson Volquez
0.289 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies
Log5 is not kind to veteran pitchers having rough seasons. Jered Weaver comes up twice, but Dallas Keuchel, Jake Peavy, and Edinson Volquez make the list, although in Volquez’s case, most pitchers make the list against Altuve.
The NN produces this top 10:
0.317, 0.749 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.290, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.287, 0.735 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Nicholas Tepesch.
0.297, 0.730 — Starling Marte batting against Nicholas Tepesch.
0.313, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.319, 0.728 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver.
0.273, 0.726 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304, 0.725 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Moore.
0.289, 0.725 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
The NN and Log5 see the ranking of Altuve and Valencia very differently.
The NN with park factored in produces this list:
0.317, 0.713 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.290, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.287, 0.699 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.695 — Josh Harrison batting against Nicholas Tepesch.
0.297, 0.693 — Starling Marte batting against Nicholas Tepesch.
0.273, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304, 0.689 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Moore.
0.313, 0.689 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.278, 0.688 — Mookie Betts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.289, 0.688 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
The big difference here is that Mookie Betts moves onto the list, while Danny Valencia disappears. Valencia would rank 12th on the park list. That makes Bogaerts the consensus pick. Starling Marte or Manny Machado might be the second pick. As always, any pick you make will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!