Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Shields
0.335 — Jean Segura batting against Eddie Butler
0.315 — David Peralta batting against Eddie Butler
0.312 — Brandon Drury batting against Eddie Butler
0.310 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman
0.309 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Shields
0.309 — David Ortiz batting against James Shields
0.307 — Christopher Owings batting against Eddie Butler
0.306 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Eddie Butler

Log5 somehow manages to prefer batters against Eddie Butler to batters against James Shields. Butler pitched consistently poorly in his career, while Shields is only really bad this season. As poorly as Shields pitched lately, he is still not a bad as Butler in 2016.

Here is the NN list:

0.315, 0.750 — David Peralta batting against Eddie Butler.
0.345, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Shields.
0.310, 0.742 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.290, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.309, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.335, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Eddie Butler.
0.285, 0.730 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.301, 0.728 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Eddie Butler.
0.306, 0.727 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Eddie Butler.
0.275, 0.727 — Josh Harrison batting against Albert Suarez.

The NN wants to pick against Eddie Butler as well.

The NN that includes parks produces this top ten:

0.315, 0.723 — David Peralta batting against Eddie Butler.
0.345, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Shields.
0.310, 0.707 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.335, 0.704 — Jean Segura batting against Eddie Butler.
0.301, 0.702 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Eddie Butler.
0.290, 0.702 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.306, 0.701 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Eddie Butler.
0.285, 0.695 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.309, 0.693 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295, 0.691 — Phil Gosselin batting against Eddie Butler.

Add in the huge Coors Field park effect, and even Phil Gosselin makes the list against Butler. David Peralta and Xander Bogaerts are the consensus best picks.

Update: Sorry, I forgot that Peralta is injured. That would make Bogaerts the top pick, with Odubel Herrera or Jean Segura second.