June 22, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Morgan
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.307 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Quintana
0.306 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Adam Morgan
0.301 — Jon Jay batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.299 — Victor Martinez batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.299 — Michael Saunders batting against Robbie Ray
0.297 — Wilson Ramos batting against Julio Urias
0.296 — Starling Marte batting against Jeff Samardzija

No one pitcher stands out this day as poor, so the good hitters (in terms of hit frequency) dominate the list.

The NN produces this result:

0.310, 0.756 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.307, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Quintana.
0.344, 0.745 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.322, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias.
0.278, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.289, 0.731 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.296, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.262, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against CC Sabathia.
0.246, 0.724 — Ben Revere batting against Julio Urias.
0.285, 0.723 — Danny Valencia batting against Junior Guerra.

The same top four, in a different order.

The NN that takes into account parks looks like this:

0.310, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.307, 0.712 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Quintana.
0.344, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.289, 0.696 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.278, 0.696 — Josh Harrison batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.322, 0.693 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias.
0.296, 0.692 — Starling Marte batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.262, 0.689 — DJ LeMahieu batting against CC Sabathia.
0.289, 0.687 — Ian Kinsler batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.269, 0.685 — Mookie Betts batting against Jose Quintana.

Daniel Murphy gets knocked down, while Miguel Cabrera rises. Altuve, Nunez, and Bogaerts seem to be the top picks, as they are most days. Remember, 25% of the time the top pick won’t get a hit!

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