Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.355 — Manny Machado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.334 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Luis Perdomo
0.334 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against Luis Perdomo
0.329 — Mark Trumbo batting against Luis Perdomo
0.324 — Matt Wieters batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — Yunel Escobar batting against Collin McHugh
0.312 — Carlos Beltran batting against Chad Bettis
0.310 — Didi Gregorius batting against Chad Bettis
0.310 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Ivan Nova
0.309 — Joey Rickard batting against Luis Perdomo
0.309 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Duffey
Luis Perdomo has a very small sample of opposition plate appearances, but he managed to allow a .369/.435/.567 slash line. That line would make a batter an MVP candidate. The Orioles hitters should be looking forward to this game.
The NN produces this top ten list:
0.276, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Hector Santiago.
0.288, 0.732 — Adrian Beltre batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.293, 0.731 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Paxton.
0.292, 0.731 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Aaron Nola.
0.282, 0.730 — Francisco Lindor batting against Blake Snell.
0.307, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.309, 0.729 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.273, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Sale.
0.294, 0.726 — Martin Prado batting against Bud Norris.
0.290, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Kazmir.
Note that batters against Perdomo don’t make this list at all, although Manny Machado is just off. The NN might do a better job of recognizing short term versus long term performance issues. Herrera is the only batter on both lists.
The NN that takes the park into account produces this list:
0.276, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Hector Santiago.
0.288, 0.697 — Adrian Beltre batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.292, 0.696 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Aaron Nola.
0.293, 0.695 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Paxton.
0.282, 0.694 — Francisco Lindor batting against Blake Snell.
0.309, 0.694 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.273, 0.694 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Sale.
0.307, 0.690 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.294, 0.688 — Martin Prado batting against Bud Norris.
0.355, 0.686 — Manny Machado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.253, 0.686 — Buster Posey batting against Wilfredo Boscan.
How good is Bogaerts that he makes the list against Chris Sale? Looks like the consensus pick is Herrera or Manny Machado.
Just to note that Beat the Streak can be frustrating, last night one of my picks was Robinson Cano. The Mariners collected 19 hits in a 12-inning, 8-7 loss to the Tigers. Cano went 0 for 4 with two walks. Your best picks will not get a hit about 25% of the time.