Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.325 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.306 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.300 — Dae-Ho Lee batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.298 — Ketel Marte batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.295 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke
0.292 — David Ortiz batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.292 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jorge de la Rosa

Log5 doesn’t like Mike Pelfrey today. It may be time to take a good look at the Mariners lineup.

Here is the NN list:

0.296, 0.753 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.329, 0.747 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.325, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.295, 0.735 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke.
0.279, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.306, 0.730 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.728 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.253, 0.724 — Josh Harrison batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.304, 0.721 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.287, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.

Cano and Cruz remain among the Seattle batters when the NN does its calculation. I’m also impressed that anyone makes the list against Madison Bumgarner. Madison doesn’t issue many walks, so batters do have a chance to get a hit against him. Mostly, however, Josh Harrison is really good at collecting hits.

Here is the NN taking parks into account:

0.296, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.325, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.329, 0.710 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.295, 0.698 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke.
0.306, 0.694 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.691 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.279, 0.690 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.253, 0.688 — Josh Harrison batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.287, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.260, 0.684 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Nate Karns.
0.267, 0.684 — Francisco Lindor batting against Drew Smyly.

Bogaerts and Cruz get bumped up a bit due to the park, and Miguel Cabrera and Francisco Lindor make the end of the list. Altuve, Bogaerts, and Cano appear to be the consensus choices. As always, the probabilities indicate that the best player on the list is going to fail to get a hit in 25% of the games.