May 25, 2016

Streak Update

Jackie Bradley, Jr. went two for four Tuesday night to extend his hit streak to 28 games, halfway to tying the 56 game record Joe DiMaggio set in 1941. Bradley singled and doubled, bringing his streak slash line to .412/.487/.784. The spreadsheet keeps track of three probabilities of Bradley reaching 56 games, based on three views of his per plate appearance probability of a hit. At the low end, he stands at an almost impossible .000001. At the high end, it’s a highly unlikely .00065 or about 1 in 1540. You have to believe Bradley achieved a new, much higher level of productivity rather than just going through a hot streak.

The middle ground is .000008 or about 1 in 125,000. That one seems right to me, and makes the current streak all the more amazing. Most of the players with long hit streak were very good hitters before the streak started. George McQuinn was a rookie, but hit very well for his career. If Bradley gets into the 30s with his streak, it will go down as the most unexpected long streak ever.

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