May 23, 2016

Weekly Look at Offense

Seven weeks into the season, 2016 remains ahead of 2015 at the same point. MLB games produce 8.57 runs per game in 2016 versus 8.40 runs per game in 2015. The difference remains a battle of the three-true outcomes. Pitchers are striking out more batters (all 2015 statistics through seven weeks), 16.0 per game in 2016 versus 15.1 KPG in 2015. Batters, however, win the other two categories, with more home runs (2.14 per game vs. 1.85 per game) and walks (6.39 per game in 2016 versus 5.88 per game last year). The higher strikeout rate reduces the number of non-home run hits, but the walks and homers more than make up for that loss. All in all, 24.1 batters reach per game this season versus 23.6 batters last year.

Note that the proposed rule change to shrink the strike zone will try to deal with the one area where batters are not doing well, strikeouts. Strikeouts, however, tend to come when batters swing for the fences, so the rule change may just lead to more walks instead of more hits.

You can see a week by week comparison of 2015 and 2016 here.

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