December 1, 2015

Paying the Price

The Boston Red Sox landed David Price:

The $31 million average annual value of the contract is the most ever for a pitcher and matches that of Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Prior to Price’s deal, the most the Red Sox had paid a pitcher, in annual value and overall cost, was the four-year, $82.5 million extension signed by Rick Porcello in April.

Max Scherzer signed seven-year, $210 million deal last offseason with the Nationals and Clayton Kershaw‘s contract extension with the Dodgers was for $215 million.

So the Red Sox are turning into the Yankees under the Boss!

The value of the contract indicates the Red Sox expect to about 31 WAR out of Price over the next seven years. He averaged 4.75 fWAR over the last six years, 4.6 rWAR. So the Red Sox hope he stays at this level.

No doubt playing into this signing is Price’s regular season success at Fenway. He is 6-1 in 11 starts there with a 1.95 ERA. A left-hander, he allowed just four home runs in 74 innings at the park.

This deal is also interesting, since Price was part of the hated Rays teams. It should be noted that Price hit six batters in those 74 innings, and eight Red Sox batters overall in his career. He’s hit 35 batters in total for his career, so 23% of his HBPs came against Boston.

So now the Red Sox have an ace and four number three starters. That’s better than five number threes.

Update: It appears Price can opt-out after three seasons, so the Red Sox may not be on the hook for that much money. If Price pitches well, he’ll opt out.

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