Via BBTF, Brian MacPherson explores the link between outfield defense and improved pitching in the Providence Journal:
Across the game, the correlation between outfield defense and runs shaved off a pitching staff’s predicted ERA was significantly higher than the correlation between infield and catcher defense and ERA.
In other words, while it’s possible to make an impact with either an elite infield or an elite outfield, the teams with elite outfields tended to help their pitchers more than teams with elite infields.
I find that outcome very interesting, since the middle infield positions are considered the most important defensively. My guess is that elite infielders and stopping relatively low run singles, while outfielders are stopping potential doubles and triples.
I wonder it it’s a holdover from the early days of baseball when there wasn’t year round training and players had to work in the off season. Now with many more opportunities to get reps in, even poor defenders (David Ortiz excepted) are not so bad.
A poor defense that averages two more “seeing eye singles” that lead off, is slightly better if it can also chase Dow a lead off double.
What’s the win probability of two lead off singles in a game vs. a lead off double?