The BBWAA announces the winners of the AL and NL MVP votes Thursday evening between 6 PM and 7 PM EST on MLB Network. The finalists in the Amercian League are Lorenzo Cain, Josh Donaldson, and Mike Trout. In the National League, the top three points went to Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, and Joey Votto.

FanGraphs ranks the three AL candidates 1,2,4 with Trout first, slightly ahead of Donaldson 9.0 fWAR to 8.7 fWAR. Trout wins the offensive side of the argument, Donaldson the defensive side. Baseball Reference also ranks them 1,2,4 with Trout leading Donaldson 9.4 to 8.8. Both systems agree that Trout was the best player in the AL in 2015.

The voters might not see it that way, however, as Donaldson score and drove in many more runs than Trout, 18 more runs and 23 more RBI with the same number of home runs. Donaldson struck out less, which may be one reason for the higher RBI totals. Trout had the same BABIP, but due to fewer strike outs, Donaldson had a nearly identical BA. Also, balls in play can move runners when they don’t result in hits. I would vote for Trout, but I think Donaldson will win, and he’s a worthy candidate.

On the NL side, FanGraphs ranks the three players Harper, Goldschmidt, and Votto, 1-2-3 in the NL. Harper blows away the field with 9.5 fWAR, while the other two tie at 7.4. Baseball Reference sort of agrees, with those three being the top position players in the same order, but Greinke and Arrieta beating Goldschmidt overall. (FanGraphs does have Kershaw second overall.) Goldschmidt does much better here with 8.6 rWAR to 9.9 for Harper. They are all similar players, excelling at offense, below average on defense, producing lots of power and drawing lots of walks. This year, Harper just did it better than everyone else. He should be the easy choice for the award.