Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 13, 2009
Lowe Getting Higher

The Braves offer Derek Lowe four years, $60 million. I thought that's where he'd end up with the Mets, so now New York will need to top that if they're going to land the starter.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:56 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I really like Lowe, but we're bumping into that prohibitively expensive category. Derek Lowe in 2009 is easily worth $15 million, but is Derek Lowe going to be worth that in 2012? Or even 2011?

Posted by: crankycon at January 13, 2009 09:20 AM

AJC is reporting the deal is done. Mets either passed or didn't move quick enough.

@crankycon - Lowe has been one of the most dependable starters in the majors in the recent past, so if any pitcher were going to continue to be worth it, I'd put my money on him over, oh, let's say AJ Burnett. Definitely over what is left on the market right now.

Posted by: deversm at January 13, 2009 11:19 AM

I'm with crankycon - $60M now is a lot of money for a middle of the rotation guy. He's good when he keeps the sinker down and that's not exactly a GG infield in ATL. He'll be 36 in June - if you get the 200IP and 14-15 W a year for the length of the contract I guess he'll be marginally worth it but my guess is he'll drop off towards the end and I don't see him putting ATL over the top in the beginning. Good news for the bars in ATL though.

Posted by: bandit at January 13, 2009 12:47 PM

BTW on Burnett - upside is much higher than Lowe - I agree it's a long term risk but if he pitches as well as he did the second half last year he'll be better than what you're going to get out of Lowe.

Posted by: bandit at January 13, 2009 12:49 PM

@bandit - I disagree. In fact, I think not only is Lowe more consistent, he also has more upside. Burnett's best ever ERA+ is 122 (not counting his rookie season where he pitched only 41 innings - and that was 125). Lowe has six seasons, including last year, eclipsing that number. Burnett's lowest career WHIP is 1.167 (120 innings in 2004). Again, Lowe beat that last season in 211 innings. Also lower (sub 1) in 2002 and 1999. Factor in that Burnett is good for 180+ innings once every three years and I'd pick Lowe every time.

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Posted by: world of warcraft gold17 at January 14, 2009 04:19 AM

I think if both pitch to their capabilities at this point in their careers Burnett is going to be better than Lowe. I'm not predicting that there is a better chance that Burnett will do that.

Posted by: bandit at January 14, 2009 10:28 AM
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