December 05, 2008
Cooperstown 2014
Greg Maddux announces his retirement on Monday. Make your reservations for Cooperstown in 2014. There's a chance that with Tom Glavine and John Smoltz potentially through, the three enter the Hall of Fame together.
There's no doubt Maddux is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Glavine gets in based on his 300 wins. Smoltz gets in for being Eckersley like, a dominant starter and closer. Smoltz also has his post-season record going for him. In isolation, however, I don't think the latter two make it on the first ballot. However, it might just be too tempting for the voters to put all three in at the same time.
The voters did something like this with Mantle and Ford. Whitey ended his career after the 1967 season, Mantle after the 1968 season. Ford received 67% of the vote his first time on the ballot. At the time, he was the winningest pitcher in post-season history. I wouldn't be surprised if some voters held back so he could go in with Mantle. Maybe Maddux's retirement moves Glavine and Smoltz up a year.
Though Rickey should be the first unanimous selection this year, I don't have any confidence that the voters will manage that.
Maddux, however, makes me drool just waiting to hear the reasoning of the one or two guardians for the Hall that just couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for Mad Dog.
Is Tom Haudricourt a Hall of Fame voter? Just wondering.
Glavine has 305 W's and 5 20 win seasons - how is he not a 1st ballot HOFer?
Whitey Ford had 10 WS wins at induction, but he also had 8 WS losses. I'll take Lefty Gomez 6W-OL in WS or Red Ruffing 7W-2L in WS anytime.
I think Glavine will be a 1st ballot guy too, but I think you're probably right that Smoltz could get in with either Maddux and/or Glavine early. I just don't see enough voters thinking right off the bat that Smoltz is worth being there his 1st year of eligibility. I think he is, but I don't get a vote. I can see some idiot voters denying him votes based on things like "his arm wasn't durable enough to last as a starter" or "he only had 4 years of being a closer and couldn't last at that either" or maybe "he only won 20 once" (which would probably be the argument from the same people who'd say "he only saved 50 once").
I just noticed, Smoltz has about 1000 more K's in only 110 extra IP than Eck. Wow. Pretty impressive.
Even if the Big 3 all become eligible the same year, I bet there will be a sizeable number of HOF voters who won't want to put them all in at the same time -- even if they deserve it. Smoltz is the most likely to have to wait.
I hesitate to drag Jeter into this, but compare the two. Smoltz went to the bullpen for four years, and then back to the rotation, to help his team win. It probably does hurt his HOF chances. Whereas Jeter has refused to change positions. Who's the real team player?
Eckersley will help Smoltz as a precedent--twenty years ago Smoltz might have been looking at a long wait even with his excellent postseason record.
The only modern 300 game winners who have been made to wait were Sutton and Niekro, and neither of them had Glavine's credentials. He'll go first ballot.