Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 17, 2008
Playoff Probabilities

The Hardball Times playoff odds are out. Interestingly, the Phillies remain a huge underdog to win the World Series despite an unknown AL victor.


Posted by David Pinto at 01:21 PM | Post Season | TrackBack (0)
Comments

A team with a 47% chance to win doesn't look like a "huge" underdog to me.

Posted by: Tim at October 17, 2008 02:03 PM

As a matter of fact, 53%-47% is pretty close to the long term home field advantage for one game. So the very fact that the AL has home field might account for that entire difference.

Posted by: Ben in Boston at October 17, 2008 02:48 PM

I don't see how having a 47% chance of winning the WS makes the Phillies a huge underdog. Slight underdog, yes.
Huge underdog, hardly.

Posted by: Stan at October 17, 2008 03:01 PM

The odds on the ALCS are almost exactly what a 50-50 split on each game would give, with just a slight tilt towards Tampa Bay.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 17, 2008 03:21 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but the phillies would only need more than 50% to be the favorite if two teams are involved, wouldn't they? If Tampa Bay wins, Boston's 13.1% doesn't just get absorbed, right? It appears to me that the Phillies have the best (47%) chance of winning the WS, in front of Tampa's (39.9%) chance and Boston's (13.1%) chance. Am I wrong?

Posted by: sylvester at October 17, 2008 04:18 PM

And also, why would the fact that the AL team is undetermined affect whether the Phillies are an underdog? Both AL teams are significantly better than the Phils, so whoever wins, the Phillies will have a tough road. Personally, I think THT is significantly underestimating the difference in the relative strengths of the leagues.

Posted by: amos at October 17, 2008 06:22 PM
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