Baseball Musings: Coming Out Party

October 15, 2008

Coming Out Party

It's nice to see B.J. Upton fulfilling his baseball potential. It looked like he put things together in 2007, hitting .300 with a high OBA and a slugging percentage over .500. The Rays decided he wasn't a shortstop and moved him to the outfield, and the result was a powerful offensive player at an important defensive position. Although a shoulder injury dropped his slugging percentage 107 points this year, the time off he received in September appears to have healed that, as he's slugging .794 this post season with five home runs. If you are wondering about the future of the Rays, note that the seasonal ages for Upton and Longoria are 23 and 22 respectively. They're two or three years away from the peak periods of their careers and already seem like polished power hitters.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:54 AM | Players | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Upton is the best player on the Rays. He's amazingly talented. He's still going to have surgery to fix his shoulder, but once it's healed, lookout. You're looking at a 30/40 player who will have an OBP of close to if not over .400 and a SLG% over .500 with above-average and improving defense in CF.

Posted by: Tyler at October 15, 2008 10:54 AM

Well, let's not go bonkers over one postseason. Upton put up a .296/.391/.457 line over more than 2,000 plate appearances in the minors. Yes, he's young and will probably improve. But he may not become a consistently .900+ OPS guy, which he wasn't close to being in the minors.

And of course he's been even further from it in the majors, with a .793 OPS over more than 1,500 plate appearances.

Of course, if baseball injects more offense into the game generally - as I think they will do next year in a sour economy - maybe lots of guys will hop into .900+ territory.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 15, 2008 11:51 AM

Just checked the ESPN stats, and there were only sixteen guys in the majors with a .900+ OPS this year. That's about one for every two teams. It's a hard number.

Yes, this year was relatively low-scoring compared to recent seasons. And, surprise, ticket sales went down. I expect more offense next year with a poor economy and - assuming an Obama election - higher taxes, especially on the businesses and more affluent fans who buy a lot of baseball tickets.

So Upton might get to .900+. But the injury history is already starting to rear its ugly head, and his career stats don't scream top-drawer hitter. Let's just wait and see.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 15, 2008 12:12 PM

Career minor league stats are just about useless without context. That .850 OPS (And last I checked, .850 OPS isn't that far from .900 especially for a guy as young as Bossman) you just cited ignores the fact that the dude was in AA as an 18 year old, repeated AA for half a season and was in the big leagues by the time that he was 19. Also ignoring the fact that he had an .882 OPS in AAA at 20 and his shoulder was hurt during his 21 year old season which lowered his OPS over 100 points from the previous season.

Posted by: Tyler at October 15, 2008 12:18 PM

Oh, and it also ignores the fact that he put up an .894 OPS at 22 in the big leagues over a full season.

Posted by: Tyler at October 15, 2008 12:23 PM

I don't regard minor league stats as useless at all. I think they're a fairly reliable indicator of major league potential. In fact, they have been very reliable for Upton. His minor league stats have predicted pretty well what he's done in the majors so far.

And the injury history bugs me. He screwed up his shoulder just swinging the bat. It wasn't some fluke, one-time thing like Longoria getting hit in the hand.

Maybe surgery will cure everything. Maybe not. But I'm not going to town on a career .793 OPS hitter just yet.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 15, 2008 12:38 PM

I said looking at career minor league numbers without context is useless. BJ was aggressively moved through the minors, playing against significantly older competition and still putting up killer numbers. Guys like that you can expect to improve as they get older. If you think he's an injury risk, fine, say that, but citing the fact that he "only" had an .850 OPS in the minors with one year being hurt and playing in AA/AAA at 19/20/21 then that's crazy! Look at the 20 year olds playing in AAA and putting up .880 OPS's, with crazy athleticism and absurd bat speed, I'll show you a bunch of superstars.

Yes, his career OPS is .793, at 23 years old. This career number includes 330 at bats at the beginning of his career where he was 19 or hurt at 21.

So fine, if you think his shoulder is going to effect him long term, that is a perfectly legitimate concern, but if don't cite minor league numbers without providing context, because they were exceptional.

Posted by: Tyler at October 15, 2008 03:01 PM

Sorry, but the point is that Upton's minor league numbers so far have proven completely unexceptional as major-league predictors. He did an .849 OPS in the minors, which translates rather accurately to his .793 OPS so far in the majors, given (of course) better-quality pitching. This is not exceptional at all.

So what's the big deal? Upton so far is following more or less the path in the majors that his minor-league numbers anticipated. Will he improve? Probably, though he took a big step back this year due to injury and possibly the pitchers figuring out weaknesses. Will he become a consistent .900+ OPS guy? Oh maybe, but it's by no means a lock.

This is all assuming relatively steady overall offensive levels in baseball for the forseeable future. For reasons I've outlined, I expect more offense next season. Upton would benefit from that, as would all hitters.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 15, 2008 04:10 PM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (10)
Agents (12)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (239)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (169)
Base Running (78)
Baseball (1581)
Baseball Jerks (219)
Blogs (759)
Books (129)
Broadcasts (568)
Charity (49)
Cheating (665)
Collectibles (15)
College (1)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (40)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (100)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (169)
Defense (372)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (724)
Draft (63)
Equipment (25)
Fan Rant (46)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (58)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (3)
Free Agents (782)
Games (5549)
History (102)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (64)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (135)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1122)
International (76)
Interviews (168)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1281)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (46)
Minor Leagues (12)
Movies (9)
News Media (96)
Oddities (1)
Offense (216)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (321)
Owners (73)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2911)
Players (1524)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (145)
Probabilistic Model of Range (108)
Public Relations (8)
Records (153)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (25)
Salaries (12)
Scheduling (22)
Science (1)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (117)
Stadiums (279)
Standings (25)
Statistics (996)
steroids (1)
Strategy (171)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (937)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (56)
Trades (700)
Transactions (321)
Umpires (53)
Uniforms (17)
Union (22)
Welcome! (3)
women (4)
World Cup (170)
World Series (657)

By Month:
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman
Peter Gammons

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Trade Rumors Thoughts on wheeling and dealing.

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes Blog of a girl who somehow has found a way to balance being a baseball purist with being a New York Yankees fan.

Baseball from Wrigley A Chicago Cubs blog.

Sliding into Home A Yankees blog.

Boras Blog Blogging about Scott Boras.

Injury Tool Fantasy Pitch F/X offers complete information on injuries.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.