Baseball Musings: Tim's Time?

September 14, 2008

Tim's Time?

Tim Lincecum
Photo: Icon SMI

Tim Lincecum improved his chances of winning the Cy Young Award Saturday night as he pitched the first shutout and complete game of his major league career. He allowed the Padres just four hits and three walks while he struck out twelve. Bruce Bochy allowed Tim to throw 138 pitches, which I'm sure will raise some hackles. It seems the Giants believe that Lincecum is a different pitcher, and pitch counts don't matter with him. We'll see.

Recently, two studies used strength of opponents to show that Cliff Lee had an easy path to his Cy Young type season. I wonder if the same will hold true for Lincecum? Saturday he made his sixth start against San Diego, ranked last in the majors in runs per game at 3.86. He posted a 3-0 record with an 0.62 ERA against the Padres, allowing three runs in 43 1/3 innings while striking out 49. Against all other opponents, Lincecum's ERA stands at 2.90. Still pretty good, but higher than Santana's 2.70.

Johan Santana
Photo: Icon SMI

The team Santana faced the most is Philadelphia. The Phillies are third in the NL in runs per game at 4.86. Santana is 2-0 against the Mets division rivals with a 2.97 ERA in five starts. He's walked six and struck out 32 in 36 1/3 innings of work, while allowing five home runs. Take the Phillies out of the Santana mix and his ERA drops to 2.64.

Lincecum does lots of things well. His strikeout numbers and durability remain impressive. The Mets called upon Santana to face their most important foe five times and performed extremely well against a tough offense. That should carry some weight as well.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:40 AM | Awards | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Brought him back out for the 9th last night after 118. In a 7-0 game. On a team with a 0.002% chance of reaching the playoffs. Managers really are insane about letting their pitchers get the CG SO; that's where most of these ridiculous, unnecessary pitch counts come from.

According to BPro, the average OPS of the batters Lincecum has faced is .730. Johan's is .736. The NL average is .743.

Posted by: Vegas Watch at September 14, 2008 11:53 AM

Oh, and this comes exactly five days after he threw 127 pitches. Same exact situation, going for the shutout in a game that wasn't close (6-0).

Posted by: Vegas Watch at September 14, 2008 11:55 AM

My first thought was that the lefty power of Philadelphia made for a good matchup for Santana. He owned Utley and Rollins this season, but Howard hit .429/.500/.857 in 14 at-bats. I think it's close, but general sentiment still seems to view Santana as an also-ran (while Delgado inexplicably gains steam).

Posted by: Hank at September 14, 2008 12:13 PM

The thing that gives Lincecum the edge (from my view) is that he finds a way to win despite his team barely scoring runs. That's gotta be tougher to win than facing a low run team... at least you have some control when you're pitching but you can't really control your own offense.

Posted by: Devon Young at September 14, 2008 12:27 PM

Almost no matter how one looks at it, Tim Lincecum stands above even such fine NL pitchers as Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana and Edinson Volquez.

He easily leads the league in ERA and almost could have won in strikeouts even had he taken the month of September off. Sabathia would be giving Tim a run on strikeouts had he pitched his full season in the NL, but after last night he and Tim have the same number of overall appearances and despite pitching fewer innings, Tim has a dozen more strikeouts than CC.

Tim needs only 15 strikeouts in his last two (or possibly three should the Giants take advantage of a 9/22 day off to move Tim up one notch in the rotation, facilitating his pitching the season finale against the Dodgers), he will break the SF Giants strikeout record of 251 by Jason Schmidt. If they do give him that third start, there is a really outside chance he could break Christy Mathewson's franchise record of 267 whiffs in one season. Christy pitched only 366.1 innings that 1903 season.

I don't think there is any denying that Sabathia has been the NL's top pitcher since joining Milwaukee. But he will wind up making only 16 appearances with the Brewers, or less than half as many as Lincecum will make for the Giants. On the full season, Lincecum has been the better pitcher, even if Sabathia's first 18 starts this season had come in the National League rather than the American.

Sabathia is unbeaten with the Brewers, going 9-0 with six complete games and three shutouts. Lincecum last night recorded his first career achievement in each category. But Lincecum's remarkable 17-3 record with a poor team places him 14 games over .500 compared to Sabathia's nine with the Brewers.

Even Webb, the National League's only 20-game winner, is only 13 games over .500 at 20-7. Brandon has won three games more than Tim, but he has lost four more.

In addition, I believe Brandon has won four games in which he has yielded over four runs. Lincecum has won none. Reverse those two figures, and it would be Lincecum in the 20-game category, actually with 21 wins.

As a side note, know how many games Lincecum has lost in his career when he has gotten three or more runs of support? If you have no answer, you are close. The answer is none. In Tim's three losses this season he has received two runs of support. No, not two runs per game. Two runs, period, both coming in the same game.

The amazing thing is that is the only game Lincecum has lost this season in which he has had even one run of support. In Tim's other 30 appearances this season, the verdict has been, give him any number of runs except none, and he won't lose.

Steve Carlton's Cy Young Award winning season of 1972 is considered to be the greatest season ever with regards to winning in comparison to his own team. The Phillies' winning percentage was a full .461 higher when Steve received the decision than when he didn't pitch or had no decision. When Tim Lincecum has received the decision, the Giants this season after last night were .459 better than when he didn't pitch or didn't receive the decision.

In other words, Lincecum's 2008 season is pretty close to the one people talk about when they talk about Cy Young Award winners with losing teams. As of now, you can put Tim Lincecum's name right up there with Carlton's.

Finally, which pitcher has created the most buzz in the National League? Webb's 20 wins have created a bit of a buzz. Sabathia's nine wins without a loss have created a buzz. But Lincecum is the guy people are talking about -- or at the very least should be.

Sports Illustrated put Tim on its cover and called him "The Freak." It would be almost freakish if he DOESN'T win the Cy Young Award this season.

This morning my son asked me what Tim had to do to win the Cy Young Award this year. "Have the season end today," was my answer. If Tim Lincecum isn't ahead in your own personal Cy Young voting, you might want to take another look at what you're valuing.

Webb and Sabathia have had WONDERFUL seasons. Santana, Dempster and Volquez have been very, very good.

One pitcher stands above them all, leading or being among the leaders in virtually every important category. Well, actually he usually stands below them and could easily be confused with the bat boy.

But no one in the National League has stood as tall on the mound this season as Tiny Tim Lincecum. There is only one "Freak."

In the National League this season, Lincecum has indeed been the Ace of Diamonds.

Posted by: Reality Rog at September 15, 2008 02:58 AM

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