Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 09, 2008
Full or Half?

Tim Lincecum pitched into the ninth inning Monday night, loading the bases with one out before leaving with a 6-0 lead. Two of those runners scored, only one of them earned as Tim lowered his ERA to 2.54 and kept the Diamondbacks from gaining on the Dodgers.

With Haren and Webb fading, should Lincecum win the Cy Young award? His great ERA allowed him to go 16-3 on a very poor offensive team. He leads the NL in both strikeouts and strikeouts per nine. He goes deep in games, averaging nearly seven innings per start. His walks are a bit high, but with a home run rate of about 10 per 200 innings, the power isn't there to advance the walkers. The big question: is a half season of Sabathia worth more than a full season of Lincecum? Sabathia pitched all his bad outings with Cleveland., so they don't count toward this vote. In other words, how important is sample size to Cy Young voters?


Posted by David Pinto at 07:28 AM | Awards | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Lincecum should be the NL Cy Young, followed by Johan. Webb's peripherals are ho-hum compared those two (and even guys like Sheets and Hamels, for that matter). Other than wins there is not a single category that Webb is good enough in to make him Cy worthy. We shouldn't award Cy Young awards to guys who were lucky enough to have good bullpens or better performing offenses.

The debate about Sabathia is intriguing, he shouldn't win for the same reason that Delgado probably won't and should not win the MVP: it's a full-season award.

Posted by: crankycon at September 9, 2008 09:44 AM

It is amazing to me that people have somewhat ignored Santana.

Lincecum has been the best pitching in the NL this year. But not sure that the writers will go for it.

Sabathia is an interesting choice, due to the obvious sample size issues.

One person you all are forgetting is Ryan Dempster.

Posted by: dave at September 9, 2008 11:40 AM

It is amazing to me that people have somewhat ignored Santana.

That's because too many people (though probably not the people who read this site) can't get past wins, or the lack thereof. Santana's bullpen is going to cost him any chance he has for a Cy Young, which is a shame, because he's been the equal of any pitcher in the league this year.

Posted by: crankycon at September 9, 2008 11:45 AM

In my mind Tim Lincecum has been the Cy Young leader at least since Brandon Webb dropped to 19-7 -- which at the time gave Brandon four more losses than Tim to go along with four more wins. After last night's Giants victory, it is now three more wins and four more losses.

Tim ranks quite high in just about every meaningful stat except for walks, where he has cut down by well over half a walk per nine innings from last season but is still slightly high. Tim's ERA has been at or near the lowest in the NL all season long.

Although I think won-loss record is overrated in the Cy Young voting, Tim has a fabulous .842 winning percentage compared to his team's .351 winning mark in its other games. This is somewhat comparable to Steve Carlton's accomplishment in 1972 when Steve won the Cy Young Award for the 55-win Phillies.

Tim's winning percentage is 491 points higher than his team's in the games in which he doesn't have a decision. Steve's was 487 points higher.

I do see CC Sabathia charging up from the rear. Former Giant F.P. Santangelo considers CC a legitimate candidate -- but feels CC has to be about perfect the rest of the way to win. That sounds rather logical to me.

I think the award is Tim's to lose -- and CC's to win. I don't think anyone has pitched as well as CC since he came to the National League.

But to the extent that wins and losses are important, Tim has 13 more wins than losses, while CC has nine more. Using that as a measuring stick, CC would need to win all four of his remaining starts while Tim would have to win nary a one -- merely for CC to TIE Tim.

If Tim does win the award, I believe he will be only the second NL pitcher to win the award in his first full season. Fernando Valenzuela was the other.

Tim has been called a right-handed Sandy Koufax. He has been compared to Pedro Martinez. Yes, he's approaching that type of dominance. And he's clearly better than either Sandy or Pedro was in their second seasons -- and first full year.

Posted by: Reality Rog at September 9, 2008 02:07 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?