Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 04, 2008
NL East Race
Phillies Mets

Photo: Icon SMI

The NL East race once again sees the Mets in a September lead with the Phillies trying to catch them. Unlike 2007, however, it was the Mets who overcame the big lead this season, as New York was 7 1/2 games after games of June 13th. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:

2008 (NL Ranks)MetsPhillies
Runs per Game 4.95 (2nd)4.83 (3rd)
OBA.340 (5th).331 (6th)
Slug..418 (8th).433 (3rd)
ERA3.96 (5th)3.88 (4th)
Staters ERA3.89 (3rd)4.21 (7th)
Relief ERA4.13 (10th)3.15 (1st)

So the two team are fairly evenly matched in terms of offense. The Mets put more runners on base, but the Phillies smack the ball harder. They're equally close is terms of ERA. The Mets are better early in the game, the Phillies late. While the Mets fans like to complain about their bullpen, I'd rather have the better starting pitching. That keeps the opposition down early, so the bullpen is in a position to hold the lead, rather than coming in the game early to keep a deficit close.

The other thing that happens to a great bullpen with a poor starting staff is over use. In the last 8 games, where the Phillies went 3-5, the bullpen was hit hard. While the starters and relievers allowed similar BA and OBAs over that stretch, the starters gave up two home runs and the relievers five. That made the difference in slugging percentages about 150 points, .381 for the starters, .527 for the bullpen. Something that's been a strength all year might be turning into a weakness.

For the Mets, their starting pitching is getting stronger. Over their last 23 games, the New York starters hold a 3.22 ERA, and only have two poor starts in the lot for an 11-1 record. Given that the teams are pretty even offensively, the Mets pitching strength improving and the Phillies pitching strength declining points to New York taking the division.

Cross posted at Examiner.com.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:32 PM | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Bullpen ERA is always misleading.
Inherited runners scoring are the problem. Starters usually get stuck with those runs. See: Ryan Madson.

Posted by: Joe in Philly at September 4, 2008 07:28 PM

Also most relievers are 2 pitch pitchers - the more you see them the easier they are to hit. One huge difference between starting and relieving is you only face hitters once - some guys never - when you have to go out there 2-3 times in a series and pitch longer all the sudden some of these guys aren't so tough.

Posted by: Bandit at September 5, 2008 07:27 AM
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