Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 17, 2008
Graphing Chipper

The Braves lose another close one on the road, falling to Texas 7-5. The Rangers got off to a 6-0 lead, but Atlanta did fight back with five runs over the last four innings. Texas pitchers help Chipper Jones to an 0 for 2 with two walks, and Jones is right on .400. The two walks, however, lowered his projected at bats for the season, so his probability of hitting .400 went up, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00052.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:43 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Comments

something is off in your projections if 2/4 results in a decreased probability of .400 and 0/2 results in an increase. Are the projected AB that sensitive to daily numbers of walks?

Posted by: bsball at June 18, 2008 03:06 AM

AB are rounded. So if the projections is around 0.5, yes it can be that sensitive.

Posted by: David Pinto at June 18, 2008 07:09 AM
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