June 16, 2008
VORP Drive
J.C. Bradbury takes a shot at VORP:
My point isn't that VORP is an awful or useless stat. To the contrary, there is clearly useful information contained in it. And those who prefer to hold discussions based on this metric should continue to do so. But there is no need for someone who does not speak to the language to learn the ins an outs of a new metric, as Sheinin suggests. I can talk about all its components without dropping the V-bomb. If you want to talk hitting, we can use OBP and SLG. Then you can bring in stolen bases and defense to capture other effects. For pitching, we can use strikeouts, walks, and homers. The big advantage of these is that I can have these conversations with people other than die-hard stat-heads. I can also explain the advantages of these metrics over traditional triple-crown stats, and that is a huge benefit.
I view VORP as an insider language, and by using it you can signal that you are insider. It's like speaking Klingon at a Star Trek convention. I can signal to others who speak the language that I am one of you. But, the danger of VORP is that once you bring it up the discussion goes down the wrong path as the uninitiated have reason to feel they are being told they are not as smart as the person making the argument. It's like constantly bringing up the fact that you only listen to NPR or watch the BBC news at dinner parties. The response is likely going to be the same, "well fuck you too, you pretentious asshole!"
I understand where Bradbury is coming from on this. I have the same problem with UNIX. If you talk to real programmers, UNIX is the be all and end all of operating systems. They are correct. UNIX, however, requires learning an inside language. The command names are cryptic, because when the OS was written, memory was so scarce that they couldn't afford to have commands longer than two or three letters. So when I work in UNIX, I have to have a book next to me so I can look up how to copy a file from one place to another. My Python scripts run just as well on Windows as on UNIX.
I find VORP useful, as I do runs created and win shares and lots of other metrics. Most of the time, however, I can look at a player's BA/OBA/Slugging line and get a pretty good picture of that hitter's abilities.
The criticism is overstated. Speaking Klingon at a Star Trek convention is purely an affectation; there is no practical value in it whatsoever. If you assume that VORP is a reasonably accurate measure, then it does have actual value beyond geekiness. For instance, it allows you to easily compare the impact of two extremely different players -- say, Manny Ramirez and Grady Sizemore. Or Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett. If you take players one stat at a time, then you get into arguments about which stat is more important.
As for learning a language, well, boo hoo. If you have a need for greater understanding of the game, then you need to know a lot of newfangled terms. Just like if you're a journalist or researcher, you'd better damn well know how to use a computer and the Internet -- even if you prefer the comfort and familiarity of a manual Underwood or a quill pen.
Now, if you're just a fan who wants to enjoy the game, then there's no need to trouble your head with VORP.
My main gripe with VORP - which sounds like a dog upchucking - is the vagueness of "replacement level."
I can understand average level. You look at all the players in whatever group and check their average performance. But replacement level is almost mystical.
The best description you can get of a replacement-level player is a one who's available "cheaply". Um, okay, just how cheap is that, and doesn't availability shift from day to day? Some days a better catcher may be available at a cheaper price than other days.
I just stick with average value. I can look at all qualifying leftfielders, say, and see how Manny Ramirez stacks up. I don't have to invent a mythical replacement LF to compare him to.
People like OBP and SLG and the rest because they know how those metrics are calculated, so on that level, we're a little more comfortable with what they measure. VORP is a black box, so it's probably a little harder to have an intuitive sense of what it is. If you wanted to ask "what does VORP measure?", maybe a good answer would be "how hard it is to replace a player at his position with a minor leaguer."