Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 11, 2008
Graphing Chipper

Chipper Jones pinch hit Tuesday night and walked. The no at bat game raised his probability of hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. When Chipper misses games, or doesn't receive an at bat, his projected number of at bats drops. Fewer at bats gives him a better chance or reaching .400. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00138, or about 1 in 725.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:06 AM | Records | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Maybe you should at least present the different methodologies of coming up with the "true" batting average? I think it's a little odd that you are still using his pre-season career batting average (in other words, Chipper's .265 batting average in 1995 is influencing his likelihood of hitting .400 in 2008 more than his .420 average in 2008?!)

Why not use some sort of weighting giving heavier weight to more recent performance? Isn't it possible that the 2006-2008 Chipper (.348 average) is a different hitter than the 1995-1997 Chipper (.291 average)? Those aren't very small samples either - over 1,100 ABs in each.

Posted by: Aryeh at June 11, 2008 07:48 AM

FYI. Williams had a broken bone in his ankle in 1941.

Posted by: geb4000 at June 11, 2008 03:25 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?