Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 07, 2008
Graphing Chipper

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000914 a tick down after a 1 for 3 on Saturday night. He's now batting .420 on the season. That probability gives him about a 1 in 1100 chance of hitting .400. In 17 dates he's gone from about a 1 in 10000 to close to a 1 in 1000 chance. If he gets to 1 in 100 that quickly, we could be looking at serious run at .400.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:47 PM | Records | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I'd be interested to see the chart for Ted Williams' .400 season. Could you produce one?

Posted by: Chris at June 8, 2008 03:26 AM

I have to agree with Chris, David. You've done such a fine job of tracing Chipper's possible path to .400 thus far that the final capstone on this project would be an ongoing chart (ideally a graph) comparing Chipper's probability thus far to Williams'. It would be both visually compelling as well as informative, though I can certainly understand if it's difficult (or even impossible...do we have all the necessary data for 1941?).

Either way, I'm enjoying the contiuing series of posts estimating the probability of .400.

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 8, 2008 04:25 AM

Well, if we're going to have suggestions for more work for our fine blogger here, allow me to request something like George Brett's 1980 season: something that came close but fell short.

Posted by: TC at June 8, 2008 07:53 AM

I used to have a day by day for Williams. I'll see if I can find it.

Posted by: David Pinto at June 8, 2008 07:58 AM

I have a philosophical question ;-)
You say,

"If he gets to 1 in 100 that quickly, we could be looking at serious run at .400."

But if he gets to 1 in 100, he'll have only a 1% chance of finishing the season at .400, right? Unless you mean, if he gets to 1 in 100, then the model for assigning chances is likely to be defective...

Posted by: James at June 8, 2008 08:01 AM

If nothing else, a good run at .400 should silence the know-nothings who don't think he's Hall of Fame material a couple of seasons before reaching 500 HR would likewise shut them up.

Posted by: M. Scott Eiland at June 8, 2008 11:53 AM
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